工业革命、金融革命与系统性风险治理

本文以历史上三次工业革命为切入点,探讨工业革命、金融革命与系统性风险治理间的关系。在工业革命演进过程中,先进技术创新应用、经济结构转变和社会环境变迁,推动了金融业演进发展和升级;反过来,资本的快速积累和有效融通对科技进步转化为工业革命不可或缺,以现代商业银行、现代投资银行和创业投资体系为特征的三次金融革命分别是三次工业革命的重要推动力量。但如果制度规则建设和监管滞后,金融发展失序也会导致系统性风险逐步累积,引发金融危机,反过来催生重大金融体制或监管制度变革。当前第四次工业革命已拉开序幕,金融科技引领的金融业集成创新有望成为第四次金融革命的突出特征。我国是全球金融科技发展领先的国家之一,应统筹发展与安全,在金融科技带动下发挥好银行体系、资本市场、创投体系和金融科技企业服务实体经济创新发展的合力,同时做好风险防范,引导从业机构在服务实体经济和遵从审慎监管的前提下守正创新,防止资本无序扩张,牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线。

Industrial Revolution,Financial Revolution,and Systemic Risk Governance

This article studies the relationship among industrial revolution, financial revolution, and systemic risk governance by examining the three industrial revolutions in human history. The three industrial revolutions had significantly improved productivity, transformed industrial production and social relations. The advanced technology innovations and applications, transformation of economic structure and evolution of social environments promoted development and upgrading of the financial sector. Subsequently, rapid capital accumulation and effective intermediation were essential in turning technological progress into industrial revolution, and financial revolution became an important catalyst of industrial revolution. However, if the rules, institutional arrangements and regulations could not catch up with the revolution in financial sector, the imbalances will build up and systemic risks accmulate, which would in turn trigger finanical crisis that would subsequently prompt major changes in the financial and regulatory systems.
The first industrial revolution established production process mechanization and industry specialization as the pattern of modern production and economic growth.Under the specific socio-economic environment in the UK, the swift industrial and business development drove the expansion of banking system and the emergence of a unified credit market that narrowed the credit spread among areas, and mitigated capital shortage in industrial areas. The first financial revolution, i.e. the rise of modern commercial banking system, provided massive fund support for the full-scale rise of the first industrial revolution. However, due to the weakness in risk management, rapid surge of bank credit accumulated massive risks in the financial system,which triggered frequent financial crises. After the financial crisis in 1825, the UK overhauled its financial system.The Bank of England gradually assumed central bank functions such as currency issuance, financial stability. The British financial industry entered into a century-long stable period thereafter.
During the second industrial revolution, the technological progress, economic expansion, and large-scale infrastructure building generated financing demands that stimulated the development of capital markets and investment bank business in the US. The second financial revolution, with the rise of modern investment banking system, restructured the capital foundation of the 2^nd industrial revolution. The development of capital market provided the financial infrastructure and capital for large-scale industrial development. The M&A deals helped optimize industrial and market structures, and facilitated the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into economic growth. But in the early stage of development, due to lack of regulation, speculation was rampant in the US capital market, stock price manipulation, insider-trading, and frauds went unchecked. Stock market panic occurred frequently. After the Great Depression, the U.S. introduced multiple legislations, created regulatory agency and self-discipline organizations for the security markets, and established the separation of banking and investment bank businesses. Along with the gradual development of the financial market regulatory framework, the U.S. capital market entered into a regulated and recovery era.
In the process of the third industrial revolution, the United States, with a large weapons industry that expanded on orders from military forces of multiple countries, found it imperative to transform its economic institutions into civilian industries through rapid development of small or medium size enterprises.The existing financing pattern could not meet such needs in economic growth. The third financial revolution, with the emergence of venture capital investment system, created new driving forces for the 3^rd industrial revolution. Venture capital not only provided direct financing for high-tech firms in their early stages, but also offered non-financial supports, including business consulting, strategic advice, resource network, and etc. In the relatively light-touch regulatory environment, capital flocked into the venture capital system and greatly eased the difficulty in financing for the startup technology firms. However, due to the focus on growth and lack of attention to risk management in the US regulatory system, the expansion in the financial industry also led to “irrational exuberance” from 1995 to 2001 and the burst of‘dot-com bubble’. As the Nasdaq was in its early stage and accounted for a limited share in U.S. capital market, the dot-com bubble caused limited damage on the economy. However, excessive risk-taking and lack of transparency of the venture capital system became more pronounced, the US regulatory authorities began to adjust rules on venture capital.In 2011, the SEC issued rules requiring venture capital funds to meet certain requirements, further tightening regulation of the venture capital system. In recent years, the speculation and pro-cyclical behaviors in venture capital investment became a topic of academic research.
The ongoing fourth industrial revolution is presenting historic opportunities for the financial industry. The integrated innovation of financial industry made possible by financial tecnology will become a feature of the fourth financial revolution. China is among the leading countries in financial technology development. We should learn from the past experience, and seek to balance development and security. With the progress of financial technology, the banking system, capital markets, venture capital system, and financial technology firms work together to support the real economy. At the same time, there should be measures to manage financial risks, to establish a dynamic and balanced financial regulatory system that is compatible with innovations in financial technology. Such a system will guide financial institutions to stick to the proper way and make innovation under the precondition of serving the real economy and complying with regulatory requirements, prevent disorderly capital expansion, and prevent systemic risks.