我国居民消费带动经济长期增长的实证研究——基于省际离散面板模型的分析

本文从经验研究的角度出发,通过构建我国省际间的离散面板数据,研究经济增长的短期波动、消费变动、开放程度、收入变化、人力资本变动、通胀因素等协同作用经济长期增长的强度与方向。研究发现,短期经济的频繁波动并不利于我国经济长期稳定增长;消费的稳定增加对经济长期增长有显著的正向拉动作用;人均收入水平、人力资本因素、适度的通货膨胀具有正向溢出效应;人口因素则会给长期增长带来减损作用。因此,建议提高弱势群体居民收入、加大教育投入、使用差异化的财政政策以保障经济长期增长的实现。

An Empirical Research of China's Long-term Growth Driven by Consumption since Reform and Opening-up: Based on Inter-provincial Analysis of Discrete Panel

From the perspective of empirical research,this paper focuses on the effect strength and directions between the synergy factors and long-term economic growth,including the short-term fluctuations,consumption changes,openness,income per capita,human capital and inflation factors,by constructing inter-provincial discrete panel data.It is proved that the frequent short-term economic fluctuation is not conducive to the long-term stable growth in China.The steady increasing consumption has stimulated on the grow...