上市公司可持续增长率偏差的实证分析

按照可持续增长率进行发展,要求企业全面权衡各方面的契约关系,以稳定的契约结构获取企业的长期增长。但是在现实中由于各种原因,企业不可能完全按照可持续增长率进行增长,出现了可持续增长率偏差。本文通过对我国A股市场的上市公司在1997-2005年的可持续增长情况进行分析,研究了我国上市公司可持续增长率偏差的主要影响因素及其对未来经营业绩的影响。研究结果表明：影响可持续增长率偏差的主要因素包括资产运作效率变动、资本结构的调整、外部权益融资和销售净利率的变化,鼓励政策对企业的可持续增长率偏差并没有显著作用。另外本文还验证了较高的可持续增长率偏差对后期（5年）的业绩提高具有消极作用。

The Statistical Empirical Analysis of Deviation Sustainable Growth Rate of Listed Companies

According to the Sustainable Growth rate to carry on a development,business enterprises must weigh the contractual relation of every aspect completely,by which the business enterprises obtain the long-term growth.But in the reality because of various reasons,business enterprises are impossible completely according to the Sustainable Growth rate to carry on a growth,so there is the deviation of the Sustainable Growth rate.According to the analysis of the Sustainable Growth Rate of the listed company of the securities business of our country from 1997 to 2005,this studies the factors that influence the deviation of the Sustainable Growth Rate and the influence that the Sustainable Growth Rate have to the future achievement of the business enterprise.The result of the study:the main factors of influencing the deviation of the Sustainable Growth Rate include the variety of the capital operation efficiency,the adjustment of the capital structure,the variety of the exterior owner’s equity financing and Profit Margin and the influence of the dividend policy is not remarkable.Moreover this still verified that higher the deviation of the Sustainable Growth Rate have a negative effect on the future achievement that is expected(5 years) behind.