美联储加息对人民币汇率的影响——基于VAR模型的实证分析

目的/意义 在美联储加息的背景下，分析美联储加息对人民币汇率的短期影响，为继续推进人民币国际化，以及及时防范风险以稳定汇率提供借鉴。 方法/过程通过构建VAR模型，对主要变量做脉冲响应函数和方差分解。结果/结论研究结果表明:美联储加息导致了人民币汇率短期贬值；美联储加息是通过资产价格、国际收支、资本流动、货币政策途径影响人民币汇率；合理引导预期也是影响汇率的主要途径。同时，应继续大力发展实体经济，坚持供给侧结构性改革；坚持改革开放和多边合作机制；夯实宏观经济基础以稳定投资者对中国经济增长的信心。

The Influence of Fed Rate Increase on RMB Exchange Rate——An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

Objective/Signification This paper aims at analyzing the short-term impact of fed rate increase on RMB exchange rate under the background the fed rate increase. It plans to offer some reference on the internationalization of RMB, and timely prevention of risks and stabilization of RMB exchange rate. Method/Process Analysis is done by performing impulse response function and variance decomposition on main variables with VAR model. Result/Conclusion The results show that: 1)the fed rate increase leads to short-term depreciation of RMB exchange rate; 2) the fed rate increase is to affect RMB exchange rate on asset price, balance of payments, capital flow, and monetary policy; 3) reasonable guidance of expectations is also the main way to affect exchange rates. Facing these, China should continue to develop real economy vigorously, insist on the supply-side structural reform; adhere to reform and opening up and multilateral cooperation mechanism; consolidate the macro-economic base to stabilize investors' confidence in China's economic growth.