Technological forecasting: Applicability,relevance and future crisis analysis in a developing country

The relevance of technological forecasting for a developing country with examples from the Indian scene is discussed. The applicability of some of the techniques of technological forecasting under Indian conditions is examined. It is shown that certain parameters in India follow systematic semilogarithmic and substitution trends, as in the case of developed countries, and these trends may be extrapolated into the future with some confidence.Using mainly extrapolation technique, a future crisis analysis for the Indian situation up to the year 2000 is presented. Steps have been suggested to avert the impending crisis. These include (1) determination of future supply and demand positions of various basic materials; (2) conducting Delphi exercises; (3) selection of the best alternatives in view of resource constraints using economic analysis; (4) wide dissemination of the results to make the decisionmakers and scientists aware of these possible solutions; (5) framing suitable policies and executing them, starting now, so that the desired future becomes a reality.