农民工消费的习惯形成效应及代际差异研究——采用CHIPS、CLDS和CGSS微观调查数据的组群分析

改革开放以来，大量农民工涌入城市工作和生活，其消费行为一方面受过去农村生活习惯的影响，另一方面又受到城镇居民消费模式的影响。采用2002—2015年CHIPS、CLDS和CGSS微观调查的混合数据，利用组群方法构建“伪面板”进行系统GMM估计，结果显示：农民工家庭消费存在对即期收入的过度敏感性；由于消费习惯处于从农村居民消费模式向城镇居民消费模式的转型中，农民工家庭消费没有显著的内部习惯形成效应，但存在显著的外部习惯形成效应；相较于老一代农民工，新生代农民工家庭消费受到城镇居民消费模式示范效应的影响更大，表现出更强的外部习惯形成效应。应通过完善社会保障体系、提高农民工收入、提供住房保障和职业培训、引导新生代农民工消费、加快消费信贷市场发展等促进农民工消费习惯的城镇化转型。

Habit Formation Effect and Intergeneration Difference of Consumption Behavior of Migrant Workers: Cohort Analysis Based on Micro-survey Data of CHIPS, CLDS and CGSS

Since the reform and opening up, a large number of migrant workers have poured into cities to work and live. In the one hand, their consumption is influenced by past rural living habits, in the other hand, they are influenced by urban residents. Based on the microscopic survey data of CHIPS, CLDS and CGSS from 2002 to 2015, this paper constructs a pseudo panel by using the cohort method, and makes a systematic GMM estimation on the internal and external habit formation of migrant workers'' household consumption. The results show that there is excessive sensitivity to immediate income in the family consumption of migrant workers; because their consuming habit stays at the transition from rural residents mode to urban residents mode, there is no internal habit formation effect in the family consumption of two generations of migrant workers, but there is an obvious external habit formation effect; comparing with old generation migrant workers, the family consumption of the new generation of migrant workers is more affected by the urban consumption mode and expresses stronger external habit formation effect. China should raise the income of migrant workers by perfecting social security system, provide housing guaranteeing and vocational training, guide the consumption of new generation migrant workers and accelerate the development of consumption credit market and so on to boost the urbanization transition of consumption habit of migrant workers.