城镇化、生态环境与产业结构调整——基于省际面板数据的PVAR分析

基于2003—2018年中国省际面板数据,采用面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型实证检验全国及不同地区城镇化、生态环境与产业结构调整的动态关系.结果显示:总体上,城镇化在不同的发展阶段会对生态环境与产业结构调整产生不同的作用效果,对前者为先抑制后促进,对后者为先促进后抑制.生态环境对产业结构调整有着明显的"倒逼效应",且无论短期还是长期,都是影响产业结构调整的主要因素,而产业结构调整到一定程度后也会对生态环境产生不利影响,两者呈现出相互制约的动态关系.在经济发展程度不同地区,城镇化、生态环境与产业结构调整的相互关系已进入了不同阶段.

Urbanization, Ecological Environment and Industrial Structure Adjustment: PVAR analysis based on provincial panel data

Based on the provincial panel data from 2003 to 2018, an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship among urbanization, ecological environment and industrial structure adjustment was made by the PVAR model. The results show that urbanization in different stages of development will have different effects on the adjustment of ecological environment and industrial structure. For the former, first inhibition and then promotion, for the latter, first promotion and then inhibition. The ecological environment has obvious "backward effect" on the industrial structure adjustment, and the adjustment of industrial structure is mainly affected by the ecological environment in the short or long term. When the industrial structure is adjusted to a certain extent, it will also have adverse effects on the ecological environment. In different areas of economic development, the relationship among urbanization, ecological environment and industrial structure adjustment has entered different stages.