| 我国政府投资效应的CGE模型分析——基于“刘易斯”宏观闭合框架下的模拟 |
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| 引用本文： | 张中华,许璞.我国政府投资效应的CGE模型分析——基于“刘易斯”宏观闭合框架下的模拟[J].投资研究,2011(12). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张中华 许璞 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南财经政法大学金融学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 中南财经政法大学百篇优秀博士学位论文培育项目资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 以往国内利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行实证研究的文献,大多是假设中国处在资本充足、充分就业的新古典主义宏观闭合框架下,忽视了我国目前处于二元经济的客观事实。本文基于中国现阶段的基本国情,建立了一个刘易斯宏观闭合下的CGE模型,并利用该方法模拟了2008年末我国启动的政府投资(1.18万亿)对经济各个方面产生的影响。模拟结果显示:政府投资将会在未来几年之内拉动实际GDP增长1.83%、提升总消费2.1%、社会总投资9.89%、进口额2.09%、出口额2.14%,同时将带来约1805万的新增就业机会。
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| 关 键 词： | 政府投资 二元经济 可计算一般均衡 |
Study on the Economic Impact of the China's Government Investment:CGE Simulation Based on Lewis Macro-Closure |
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| Zhang Zhonghua,Xu Pu.Study on the Economic Impact of the China's Government Investment:CGE Simulation Based on Lewis Macro-Closure[J].Investment Research,2011(12). |
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| Authors: | Zhang Zhonghua Xu Pu |
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| Institution: | Zhang Zhonghua,Xu Pu |
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| Abstract: | Computable general equilibrium(CGE) model is able to estimate the direct and indirect impacts on all economic departments from a particular policy change.For this reason,it has been widely used in the financial and tax academic field.Most domestic scholars and literature which used the computable general equilibrium model to do empirical studies always considered China in a capital adequacy and full employment situation.However,they ignore the fact that China now is in adual economyenvironment.This paper bu... |
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| Keywords: | Government investment Dual economy Computable general equilibrium |
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