中国对外直接投资动因分析:基于“一带一路”战略的国家样本

随着中国“一带一路”的“走出去”战略的推进,带动了非金融对外直接投资的增加。在“走出去”发展战略中,影响中国对外非金融直接投资的宏观经济体量因素主要有三个：人均GDP、外汇储备余额和对外贸易依存度。以2009-2014年的中国经济季度数据为基础,将对外直接投资作为被解释变量,而将人均GDP、外汇储备（FER）、对外贸易依存度（DFT）作为解释变量,对它们进行相应地回归分析。多元回归模型分析结果表明：中国对外直接投资受人均GDP和对外贸易开放程度的影响显著,而受外汇储备的影响不显著。因此,中国要实现“走出去”扩张战略,应继续保持较高速度的经济增长,以增加中国经济总量;应保持对外贸易出口优势,以进一步提升外贸开放程度,应向境外适度扩散外汇储备,以提升外汇储备使用效率。

Analysis of the Motivation of Foreign Direct Investment in China-Based on the State Sample of the Silk Road Economic Belt Strategy

With the development of entering the world economy, China has put on the "going out" strategy by the Silk Road Economic Belt, and has being enlarged its non-financial foreign direct investment. There are three main macroeconomic factors, including per capita GDP, foreign exchange reserves and foreign trade dependence, which impact China's foreign direct investment. Based on the quarterly data of China economy during 2009-2014, we take the foreign direct investment as the explained variable and per capita GDP, foreign exchange reserves (FER), foreign trade dependence (DFT) as explanatory variables, and do regression analysis. Multiple regression analysis shows that China's foreign direct investment is significantly affected by per capital GDP and DFT, but not significantly by FER. The realization of the "going out" strategy by expansion of foreign direct investment depends on the higher-speed economy growth and the increasing accumulation of total economic output, on the superiority of foreign trade in export and the promotion of trade openness, on the moderate proliferation of FRE and lifting of efficiency of FRE.