养老保险缴费率、综合税率的调整路径和个人账户改革

建立反映我国城镇职工养老保险制度的交叠世代模型，并引入养老保险个人账户资产不实、国有资产收益划拨等因素，研究测算了养老保险缴费率和综合税率的最优调整路径：1.企业缴费率降低会使最优个人缴费率以1.51的替代弹性上升，调整后的总和缴费率依然会低于现行水平，可以真正降低缴费率水平，而当就业人口增长率降低时，最优替代弹性将会上升为1.66；2.个人缴费率的上升将会使最优税率以0.69的替代弹性下降，可以真正降低个人的税收负担，而当就业人口增长率降低时，替代弹性会下降为0.56；3.个人账户“名义化”改革后的最优总和缴费率会比改革前下降约1.5个百分点，最优税率会下降约2个百分点，说明个人账户的“名义化”改革有利于进一步降低税、费负担。

The Adjustment Paths of Pension Contribution Rate and Comprehensive Tax Rate and the Reform of Individual Account

This paper builds up an overlapping-generations model to study China's enterprise employee public pension,and tries to introduce factors of empty account of individual and public capital income into the model. We estimate the optimal adjustment paths of pension contribution rate and the comprehensive tax rate:1. Reducing enterprise contribution rate will increase the individual contribution rate with the substitution elasticity of 1.51, and the optimal total contribution rate will be below the current level. The decline in the growth rate of employment will increase the substitution elasticity to 1.66.2. Increasing individual contribution rate will decrease the optimal comprehensive tax rate with the substitution elasticity of 0.69. It can really reduce the tax burden. The decline in the growth rate of employment will decrease the substitution elasticity to 0.56.3. The optimal total contribution rate and the optimal comprehensive tax rate are reduced by 1.5-2 percentages after the nominal reform of individual account. So nominal reform of individual account is conducive to further reducing taxes and fees burden.