人口年龄结构转变对经常项目差额的影响机制与实证分析

本文对人口年龄结构转变作用于经常项目差额的影响机制进行了分析,在此基础上运用协整、基于VECM的Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数分析了劳动力抚养负担、经济增长和经常项目差额之间的动态关系。研究发现,应从长期性结构视角认识劳动力抚养负担对经常项目差额的反向作用;短期来看,二者之间不存在显著关系。与此不同,经济增长对经常项目的影响无论是长期还是短期都非常显著。快速减轻的劳动力抚养负担通过储蓄、消费、投资、出口以及政府财政收支等传导变量促使经常项目差额增加,这是人口年龄结构、经济增长以及经常项目差额之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。

The Impact Mechanism and Empirical Test of Age Structure on Current Account Balance

This paper studies the impact mechanism of age structure of population on current account,it analyses the dynamic relationship among dependency ratios,economic growth and current account using cointegration,granger causality test based on VECM and impulse response function.It is found that the dependency ratios reversely impacts the current account from the long-term perspective,while it does not significant in the short-term.Instead,economic growth impacts the current account significantly regardless of long-term or short-term.The dynamic relationship among age structure,economic growth and current account can be explained by the mechanism that dependency ratios impacts the current account through such intermediation variables as savings,consumption,investment,export and government revenue & expenditure.