人口年龄结构与金融结构——宏观事实与微观机制

人口年龄结构是影响宏观经济的重要因素,不仅能够通过“人口红利”影响经济增长,也能通过金融资产需求作用于金融结构,进而影响经济增长。首先,本文基于宏观数据发现人口年龄结构与金融结构之间存在紧密联系,伴随老年人口占比的提高,金融结构更偏向间接融资,且以金融行为来衡量的风险偏好程度显著下降;其次,本文基于2013年中国家庭金融调查数据,从微观主体对金融资产需求的角度研究人口年龄结构对金融结构的影响机制,分析家庭人口年龄结构对风险资产参与行为及风险态度的影响。实证结果表明,家庭老年人口占比越高,家庭参与股票或基金投资意愿及比重越低;对于已持有风险资产的家庭,老年人口占比提高,家庭风险资产持有比重会降低。此外,家庭人口年龄结构会影响风险态度,家庭老年人口占比提升会显著降低风险偏好程度,这是其影响家庭风险资产参与行为的重要渠道。

Demographic Structure and Financial Structure:Macro Fact and Micro Mechanism

Demographic structure is one of the most important elements affecting the national economy through demographic dividends and the financial structure. The demand for financial assets is influenced by demographic structure, and it thus promotes the evolution of financial structure. We attempt to reveal the relationship between demographic structure and financial structure by analyzing both macro-level and micro-level data. First, based on the macro data, we find a close correlation between demographic and financial structures. The rise in the ageing population is accompanied by an indirect financing bias in the financial structure. Second, based on the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), we attempt to explore the correlation between demographic and financial structures from the perspective of the demand side of financial assets at the micro level. Specifically, we examine the impact of demographic structure on household demand for risky financial assets, and then analyze the mechanism involved.
The contributions of this study to the literature could be summarized as fourfold. First, we provide a new element in the analysis of optimal financial structure, as demographic structure can affect the financial structure. Second, we improve the research method for macro-level analysis of the influence of demographic structure on asset demand. Third, we innovatively adopt the ordered probit model to investigate the impact of family demographics on family risk preference. Finally, we supplement the evidence on the factors influencing risk preference at the household level.
The empirical results show that an increase in the ratio of the aging population to the total population decreases the family's willingness to hold risky financial assets and the amount of risky financial assets. In addition, increase of the ratio of the ageing population to the total population will significantly reduces risk preference, which is an important mechanism through which the ageing population can affect the participation of risky financial assets. Under China's economic downturn, excess production capacity, and serious mismatch between supply and demand, supply-side structural reforms are gradually being implemented. At the same time, China's population aging problem is becoming more acute. The era of high economic growth brought about by the demographic dividend has passed.
Re-examining the impact of the huge changes in population structure on economic development will provide valuable suggestions for phased and regional policy adjustments. We find a very close relationship between population structure and financial structure as revealed in the cross-country/regional data. This could be driven by the declining preference for risk among the elderly population, and also indicates that the population structure affects the optimal financial structure, and the new optimal financial structure which in turn will influence the further acting on the real economy.
Combined with the empirical findings, the following insights emerge. First, against the background of gradually shrinking family sizes, the proportion of elderly people in the family is increasing, aggravating the burden of family pensions, and we could see negative effects on the level of risk tolerance and demand for risky financial assets. Therefore, when formulating long-term economic policy, the government should fully consider the trends and characteristics of the elderly population. Under the reality that the demographic dividend is disappearing, the government should act to prevent the adverse impact of the increasing pension burden on the financial market. Second, families holding different types of risky financial assets have different risk preferences. Therefore, when setting relevant monetary and fiscal policies and actively implementing market regulations, the government should seriously consider the characteristics and trends of the elderly populations in different regions. Differential incentive policies are recommended to effectively stimulate local economies according to their demographic structure.