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System dynamics modelling and forecasting health tourism demand: the case of Russian resorts |
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| Authors: | Alexandr Vetitnev Andrey Kopyirin Anna Kiseleva |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Tourism, service and sport, Sochi State University, 26a, Sovetskaya str., Sochi 354000, Russia;2. Department of Economics, Sochi State University, 26a, Sovetskaya str., Sochi 354000, Russia |
| Abstract: | This article presents the results of the system dynamics modelling of the regional market of health tourism in the Krasnodar region of Russia. The research was based on various indicators characterizing the supply and demand for this type of tourism for years 2006–2012. The medium-term forecast made by constructed model shows a possible decrease in number of health tourists and income of sanatorium organizations. Price competition of inexpensive foreign resorts was a key factor influencing the market of tourist services; therefore ruble devaluation to US dollar may improve the prognostic indicators. |
| Keywords: | system dynamics modelling health tourism demand Russian resorts |