节能减排约束下广东地区工业经济的可持续发展：2011—2020

本文基于方向性距离函数（DDF）模型，采用序列DEA方法测度和比较了广东省21市的工业在2011—2020年间不同节能减排情景的潜在产出变化，探索出广东工业未来可持续发展的最优节能减排情景。结果显示：对大部分地区工业而言，节能减排初始阶段会造成较大的潜在产出净损失，但最终会逐步实现潜在产出净增长；特别地，节能减排行为对经济发展水平较高的珠三角地区比经济发展水平较低的其它地区造成的损失更小。节能减排的技术进步是各地区工业环境全要素生产率增长的核心动力，当然技术效率在后期也发挥出作用，这些结果反映出各地区须进一步提高节能减排技术，最终实现工业经济的可持续发展。

The Sustainable Development in Guangdong Industry under Energy - saving and Emission - abatement： 2011 - 2020

With energy - saving and emission - abatement as internal requirements of industrial economic development, this paper measures and compares, applying DDF and DEA, potential 21cities in Guangdong abatement, and hence development in between 2011 and 2020 under the different scenarios of energy Guangd explores the ong industry optimal productivity changes of - saving and emission - energy - saving and emission - abatement scenario of sustainable The major conclusions are as follows： in most areas, much net loss of po- tential output will be caused on the beginning of energy - saving and emission - abatement, but finally a net growth of potential output can be achieved gradually. Specially, energy -saving and emission -abatement brings smaller loss to areas with higher levels of economic development, such as Pearl River Delta. The tech- nical progress of energy - saving and emission - abatement is the core power of environmental TFP course, technical efficiency also plays an important role should improve energy- saving and emission -abatement dustries ultimately. growth. Of in the later. These results reflect that each region technology to realize sustainable development in in-