| 基于最优定权组合模型的物流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张春萍,殷莹.基于最优定权组合模型的物流量预测[J].商品储运与养护,2013(1):85-88,91. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张春萍 殷莹 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连交通大学管理学院,辽宁大连116028 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了实现对市场需求变动的准确估计，在经过参阅大量文献之后，采用趋势外推模型、灰色GM（1，1）模型分别进行物流量的预测，以每种方法单项预测结果组合误差平方和最小为原则，提出一种最优定权组合预测模型，以此为物流园区的合理规划做出贡献。
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| 关 键 词： | 物流量预测 灰色GM（1 1）模型 最优定权 |
Based on the Optimal Weighting Combination Model in Logistics Volume Forecasting |
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| ZHANG Chun- ping,YIN Ying.Based on the Optimal Weighting Combination Model in Logistics Volume Forecasting[J].Storage Transportation & Preservation of Commodities,2013(1):85-88,91. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chun- ping YIN Ying |
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| Institution: | (School of Management, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028,China) |
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| Abstract: | In order to realize the accurate estimation of the market demand changes, after a large number of documents, using trend extrapolation model,gray GM（ 1,1 ） model for logistics volume prediction, the principle is to make the least sum of combined square error for each method, so it comes a kind of the optimal weight combination forecasting model, as a contribution for logistics park reasonable planning. |
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| Keywords: | logistics volume forecast gray GM （ 1 1 ） model optimal weighting |
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