碳中和目标下中国耕地绿色低碳利用的区域差异与影响因素

研究目的：揭示碳中和目标下中国耕地绿色低碳利用的区域差异与影响因素，为实现耕地资源可持续利用和农业高质量发展提供参考。研究方法：超效率SBM模型、核密度估计和面板Tobit回归模型。研究结果：（1）2000—2019年，中国耕地绿色低碳利用水平整体上呈现提升趋势，粮食功能区耕地绿色低碳利用水平也表现出不同程度的上升态势。（2）核密度估计结果显示，中国耕地绿色低碳利用水平演进过程存在明显的区域差异特征。（3）从全国层面来看，科技投入水平和农民生活水平对耕地绿色低碳利用具有显著正向影响，自然条件、财政支农水平、工业化水平和农业机械化水平对耕地绿色低碳利用具有显著负向影响；从粮食功能区来看，不同因素对耕地绿色低碳利用水平的影响方向与程度具有明显的差异。研究结论：中国耕地绿色低碳利用存在明显的区域差异特征，可通过“强化区域耕地生产要素高效配置”“完善相关政策工具设计”“加强农业技术研发与应用”提升耕地绿色低碳利用水平。

Regional Differences and Influencing Factors of Green and Low-carbon Utilization of Cultivated Land under the Carbon Neutrality Target in China

The purposes of this study are to reveal the regional differences and influencing factors of green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land under the carbon neutral target in China, and to provide the references for the sustainable use of cultivated land resources and high-quality agricultural development. The research methods include super-efficiency SBM model, kernel density estimation and panel Tobit regression model. The research results show that: 1) from 2000 to 2019, green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in China showed an overall upward trend, and the green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in grain functional areas also showed different degrees of upward trend. 2) The results of nuclear density estimation show that there are obvious regional differences in the evolution process of the level of green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in China. 3) From a national perspective, the level of scientific and technological input and the living standards of farmers have significant positive impacts on green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land. Natural conditions, the level of financial support for agriculture, the level of industrialization and the level of agricultural mechanization all have significant impacts on green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land. From the perspective of grain functional areas, the direction and extent of the impact of various factors on green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land have obvious divergence. In conclusion, there are significant regional differences of green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land in China, and the level of green and low-carbon utilization of cultivated land can be upgraded by strengthening the efficient allocation of regional cultivated land production factors, improving the design of relevant policy tools and strengthening the research and application of agricultural technology.