| 我国货运物流发展与经济增长的协整分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 曹泽,李东. 我国货运物流发展与经济增长的协整分析[J]. 工业技术经济, 2011, 30(3). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2011.03.014 |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 曹泽 李东 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京航空航天大学,南京,210016 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 在宏观经济运行面临诸多不确定性的状况下,通过分析交通物流与宏观经济之间的关系,可以探析未来经济的变动情况.基于协整分析,我们发现,短期内货运量大小的变化并不能反映GDP的变动.从长期的均衡关系看货运量的大小对GDP的变动有很强的解释能力,货运量变化的GDP滞后1年和2年弹性分别为0.23和0.13.通过研究还发现,虽然我国货运物流的调节配置能力增强了,但单位货运能耗增加迅速,这与建设绿色物流的目标相背离.
|
| 关 键 词： | 经济增长 货运物流 协整 误差修正模型 |
Co-integration Analysis on Freight Logistics Development and Economic Growth in China |
| |
| Cao Ze,Li Dong. Co-integration Analysis on Freight Logistics Development and Economic Growth in China[J]. Industrial Technology & Economy, 2011, 30(3). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2011.03.014 |
| |
| Authors: | Cao Ze Li Dong |
| |
| Affiliation: | Cao Ze Li Dong(Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210096,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Facing many uncertainties in the macroeconomic,we can find the changes in the economy of the future through transportation logistics.Based on the co integration analysis,we found that the size of the cargo does not reflect changes in GDP in the short term.But from the long-term,the size of freight movements has a strong explanatory power to GDP,1 year and 2-year lag GDP elasticity attained 0.23 and 0.13 against cargo changes.Through the study we also found that although the configuration of the regulation o... |
| |
| Keywords: | economic growth freight logistics co-integration error correction model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
|
