支出增长预期对居民消费和储蓄的影响分析——兼评预防性储蓄理论的不足

根据预防性储蓄理论,预防性动机是居民储蓄增加的显著原因。但是,国内外的部分实证分析表明,预防性动机的强度并不显著。为此,在预防性储蓄理论的基础上提出,未来支出增加的预期是导致居民储蓄提高的重要原因。为了促进消费对经济的拉动作用,应该采取措施抑制教育、住房和医疗保健等消费价格的过快增长,同时,应该提高居民的可支配收入,健全社会保障制度和体系。

Analysis on the Expectation of the Increasing Expenditure on Residents'''' Consumptions and Savings——On the Defect of the Precautionary Theory

According to the precautionary theory,the precautionary motive is the main cause to induce the increase of residents' savings.But some empirical analyses from home and abroad show that the intensity of precautionary motive is not very notable.Based on the precautionary theory,this paper suggests the expectation of the increase on residents' consumption also improves the propensity to savings.The empirical analysis testifies this argument.In order to enforce the impact of consumption on economy,the author suggests actions should be taken to control the soaring increase in such consumptions as housing,education and medical treatment,and improve the disposable income of residents and strengthen the system of social security.