我国国债适度规模的实证分析

近20年来，我国国债的发行规模呈现了快速增长的态势，为了避免过高债务规模的产生及其蕴含的潜在风险，将国债发行规模控制在一个适度的范围内至关重要。本文试图通过理论分析和模型证明对当前国债规模的适度性作出判断，从而对未来我国国债管理提出相关政策建议。通过对历年国债各相关指标的理论分析，以及时间指数模型、ARMA模式、KMV模型的实证分析，笔者认为我国当前的国债规模已经超出安全范围，并存在较大的偿债风险。为了扭转不良趋势，采取一系列有针对性的措施势在必行。积极预防未来国债发行和偿还可能引发的风险，不仅可以促使国债市场健康有序运行，更能为国民经济的发展提供保障。

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PROPER SCALE OF NATIONAL DEBT IN CHINA

As a primary resource for raising financial fund, balancing financial budget and supplying financial deficit, public debt has provided a strong support for the overall national economy and macro economic control. However, in the past two decades, the issuance of national debt has grown rapidly in order to avoid potential risk involved in this debt. It is crucial to keep the debt in a certain range. This paper tries to make judgment about the present scale of national debt through both theoretical and empirical analyses. After discussing the past situation of the three indexes and the precise analysis through time function model, ARMA model and KMV model, we believes that the current scale of national debt has exceeded safe range and contains potential risks. In order to reverse the trend and promote the national economy, it is necessary to take certain measures because it will not only stimulate the national debt market but also protect the national economy.