人口老龄化对中国劳动力供给的影响

本文描述了我国劳动力供给的总体数量以及变化趋势，并从劳动参与率、城乡结构、人力资本三方面进行考察，探讨人口老龄化对于劳动力供给的影响。我国劳动参与率还存在较大增长空间，将会是未来劳动力供给的重要增长点；农村剩余劳动力存量仍看似充足，但其老龄化情况较严重，难以维持当前农民工向城市转移的速度；另外我国年轻劳动力的教育程度和人力资本已有显著提升。因此虽然人口老龄化已经对我国劳动力供给产生了一定负面影响，但由于人口和劳动力的变化是一个长期过程，并不会给经济发展带来突发的、灾难性的冲击。

THE IMPACT OF AN AGING POPULATION ON THE LABOR SUPPLY IN CHINA

In order to shed lights on the impact of an aging population on the labor market in China, this paper examines labor participation rates, rural urban migration and human resources. It is found that, labor participation rates of certain age groups are relatively low. The labor supply in the agriculture sector seems to be abundant; however, population in rural areas, which is particularly aging, cannot sustain a large flow of city ward migration. Given the educational development in China, youngsters educational level and human capital have significantly improved. Consequently, population aging will negatively affect the supply of labor in the future; nonetheless, it will not bring sudden and catastrophic shocks in a short period.