工业化发展阶段、储蓄率与制成品出口贸易结构

高储蓄率在促进处于工业化发展阶段的发展中国家经济增长的同时，对于其贸易结构的优化升级也有着举足轻重的作用。文章选择了32个处于工业化发展阶段的发展中国家20年的数据，实证检验了储蓄率对处于工业化阶段国家的资本和技术密集型产品的出口具有促进作用，而对劳动密集型产品的出口具有抑制作用，从而有助于其制成品出口贸易结构的优化升级。因此，对于处于工业化发展阶段的我国来说，应该维持高储蓄，充分利用高储蓄的优势，将高储蓄安全有效地转化为经济发展的动力，实现贸易结构的优化升级，推动经济增长，最终完成工业化。

The Development Stage of Industrialization, the Saving Rate and the Export Structure of Manufactured Goods

While promoting the economic development, the high saving rate also plays a decisive role in the up- grade of trade commodity structures in developing countries which are in the development stage of industrialization. According to GDP per capita criteria of Chenery＇ s criteria for the classification of economic development stages, this paper selects 32 developing countries which are in the development stage of industrialization as samples and does an empirical analysis by using their data during 1991 -2010 The regression analysis results show that the saving rates have a significant positive influence on the ratio of the export of capital and technology intensive goods, and a nega- tive influence on the ratio of the export of labor intensive goods, thus promoting the upgrade of the export structure of manufactured goods. Hence, those countries in the development stage of industrialization should adopt financial and fiscal policies to increase the saving rates if they have a low saving rate, or keep the high saving rate and transfer the high savings into the driving force for economic development and the upgrade of trade commodity structures.