第三产业发展对湖南城市化影响的实证研究

：将第三产业发展与城市化的速度和质量作为研究对象，综合运用产业经济学的相关理论知识及定性与定量相结合的研究方法，分别将代表第三产业发展的指标和影响城市化速度指标及城市化质量指标之间的关系进行了系统的实证分析，并结合第三产业与湖南省城市化的发展现状和其存在的问题，就如何促进第三产业发展进而提高综合城市化水平提出了相关政策建议。首先对第三产业和城市化水平的关系进行了定性分析，接着运用综合指标分析，避免了单个度量指标的片面性。运用ADF检验变量序列的平稳性，用EG协整检验与VAR模型进行了定量分析。分析表明：湖南城市化与第三产业发展之间存在着长期稳定关系，湖南省城市化与第三产业发展水平之间具有高度相关性，第三产业的发展促进了城市化水平的提高。

An Empirical Study on the Influence of the Tertiary Industry Development on the Urbanization of Hunan Province

Taking the tertiary industry and urbanization speed and quality as the research object, this paper combines qualitative and quantitative economic research methods and makes a systematic research on the relation between typical development index of the tertiary industry and the indexes influencing the pace of urbanization and quality indicators of urbanization. By analyzing the existing problems in the tertiary industry and urbanization development, it proposes relevant policy suggestions on how to promote the development of tertiary industry and thus improve the overall level of urbanization. The paper first makes a qualitative analysis of the relation between tertiary industry and the level of urbanization, followed by the use of comprehensive index analysis, to avoid one- sidedness of the individual metrics. Then it tests the variable sequence smoothness by using ADF makes a quantitative analysis through EG cointegration test and VAR model. The results show that there is a long-term, stable and strong correlation between Hunan urbanization and development of tertiary industry, in which the level of the tertiary industry promotes the development of urbanization level.