战略型新兴产业评价模型构建及实例分析

战略型新兴产业已成为国家经济复兴的一剂良药，它必将改变经济增长轨迹和产业格局。文章界定了战略型新兴产业的内涵，概括了战略型新兴产业的特征；结合钻石理论，由产业资源潜力、产业联动效应、产业竞争能力、产业需求能力及外部影响因素——政府和机会等六大指标入手，构建了战略型新兴产业评价指标体系，形成了以产业贡献力和产业成长力为纵横坐标的三维空间评价模型；以江苏省镇江市为例，对新能源、新材料、电子信息、航空制造和海洋工程等五大战略型新兴产业的发展状况进行评价。评价结果初步发现，电子信息和新材料产业方面的既有优势明显，可成为该市未来发展的支柱性产业；新能源、海洋工程和航空制造产业发展状况乐观，在大力培育和扶持之下，会有明显的积蓄优势。

Study of Evaluation on the Development of New Strategic Industries

New strategic industries play an important role in national economic recovery. It will change the locus of the economic growth and industrial structure. Based on the expatiation of the connotation and the features of new strategic industry, we construct the evaluation indicator system with six indexes which are industry resource potentiality, industry linkage effect, industry requirement ability, industrial competition ability and some exterior factors, such as government and opportunities. Then, the 3-D evaluation model is developed by industry contribution ability and industry growing ability. Finally, we take Zhenjiang as a ease to evaluate the development of the new strategic industries. It is found that electronic information industry and new matei＇ials industry in the city have obvious advantages and will become pillar industries in the future, new energy industry, ocean engineering industry and aviation manufacturing industry will develop better than before under the government supports.