中国对外直接投资发展现状的实证分析

中国对外直接投资近年来发展极为迅速，这与中国经济的发展水平密切相关，并呈现阶段性的特征。本文就中国对外直接投资的发展状况和阶段检验两方面进行实证分析。首先，本文选取了中国1982．2009年对外直接投资及其相关数据，进行统计分析和对比分析，并运用对外投资绩效指数（OND）对中国的对外直接投资发展状况进行实证分析。研究结果表明，中国对外直接投资还处于比较低的发展水平。其次，本文选取1982—2009年中国对外直接投资总体数据，以及2003-2009年各省区对外直接投资面板数据，运用直接投资发展阶段理论（IDP），就中国以及中国不同地区海外投资发展阶段进行实证检验，得出中国净对外直接投资发展已经处于第三阶段以及中国东部地区已经越过第三阶段进入到第四阶段早期的结论；表明中国对外直接投资将在一个较长的时期内处于高速发展的趋势。

An Empirical Study on the Development of China Outward Direct Investment

In recent years, China＇ s Outward Direct Investment （ODI） , closely related to the level of economic development of the country, has been increasing rapidly and presents the characteristics of various stages. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the development status quo and the stage of China＇ s ODI. Firstly, this paper makes a statistical and comparative analysis, .using Chinese ODI data from 1982 to 2009 and other related statistics, as well as an empirical study on the development status of China. Secondly, by applying the aggregate ODI data from 1982 to 2009 and provincial panel data from 2003 to 2009, the authors carrie out an empirical examination on the development stages of overseas investment in China and other regions using IDP theory. The result indicates that the development of China ＇ s net ODI has reached the third stage and that the east China has already gone beyond the third stage and reached the fourth. It is concluded that China＇ s ODI will demonstrate a tendency of rapid development for a long time to come.