| 证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 黄静,董秀良.证券分析师业绩预测和投资评级准确性实证分析[J].上海立信会计学院学报,2005,19(5):35-40. |
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| 作者姓名： | 黄静 董秀良 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 吉林大学数量经济研究中心,长春,130012
2. 华侨大学经济管理学院,泉州,362021 |
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| 基金项目： | 本研究得到教育部人文社会科学研究2002重点项目（02JAZ790005）的资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 文章以国内证券分析师业的业绩预测和投资评级为研究对象,从投资评级的准确性、投资建议赢利性、业绩预测误差及其来源等几个方面进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,证券分析师的投资建议无论在短期还是中长期均不能产生显著的超额收益,业绩预测误差是导致投资评级失误的原因之一,而业绩预测误差主要源于分析师对公司层面信息的错误判断。
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| 关 键 词： | 行为金融 证券分析师 预测误差 |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6701(2005)05-035-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 05 10 2005 12:00AM |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年5月10日 |
The Empirical Study on the Security Analysts' Ability of Stock Recommendation and Earnings Forecasts |
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| Huang Jing,Dong Xiu Liang.The Empirical Study on the Security Analysts'''' Ability of Stock Recommendation and Earnings Forecasts[J].Journal of Shanghai Lixin University of Commerce,2005,19(5):35-40. |
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| Authors: | Huang Jing Dong Xiu Liang |
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| Institution: | Huang Jing Dong Xiu Liang |
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| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the performance of trading strategies based on the investment recommendations(Trading ideas)made by security analysts,who regularly publish,stock recommendation and earnings forecasts.This paper seeks to describe the investment recommendations,earning forecast error and the source of the error.Our results suggest that these trading ideas have not been useful for stock selection.A decomposition of the errors suggest that the errors are largely random and based on an inability of security analysts to predict at firm,rather than on the industry and economy level. |
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| Keywords: | behavioral finance security analysts forecast error |
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