Impacts of seasonal patterns of climate on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand: Evidence from Aruba |
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| Institution: | 1. Free University of Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. Meteorological Department Aruba, Sabana Berde 73-B, Aruba;3. University of Central Florida, 9907 Universal Boulevard, Suit 219C, Orlando, FL 32819, USA;4. Department of Spatial Economics, Free University of Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;5. International Centre for Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Development (ICIS), Maastricht University, PO Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands;1. School of Management, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei, Anhui 230009, PR China;2. Department of Economic and Management, Bengbu University, Bengbu, Anhui 233000, PR China;3. Ministry of Education Engineering Research Center for Intelligent Decision-making & Information Systems Technologies, Hefei, Anhui 230009, PR China;4. Department of Information Management, Oriental Institute of Technology, Panchiao, New Taipei 220, Taiwan;1. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, WIFO, Austria;2. Södertörn University, Alfred Nobels alle 7, SE-141 89 Huddinge, Sweden;1. IGOT, Universidade de Lisboa, Edifício IGOT, Rua Branca Edmée, Marques, 1600-276 Lisboa, Portugal;2. Universidade da Madeira, Portugal |
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| Abstract: | This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using the Census X-12 decomposition method, after which the analysis included panel data unit root testing, panel data regression, and Euclidean distance calculation. The results show that both pull and push seasonal factors of climate were relevant in determining the seasonal variations in tourism demand from both countries. The study derives two theoretical propositions: (1) climate is a significant push and pull factor affecting tourism demand; and (2) tourism demand and climate are bounded by intertemporal climate constraints. |
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| Keywords: | Seasonality Tourism demand Climate Panel regression Small island Aruba |
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