最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响

本文以1998—2007年全国各市(地区、自治州、盟)最低工资标准随时间变化的外生差异来识别最低工资上涨与企业平均工资、企业雇佣人数的关系。利用1998—2007年规模以上制造业企业报表数据进行的分析显示,最低工资每上涨10%,制造业企业平均工资将整体上涨0.4%—0.5%。借助2006—2007年福建省最低工资上涨的"准自然实验"本文也证实了该结论。对于不同行业、不同人均资本水平的企业,最低工资上涨的影响也存在异质性。最低工资将更多地增加劳动密集型或人均资本较低企业的平均工资。研究还发现,最低工资每增加10%,制造业企业雇佣人数将显著减少0.6%左右。政府在制定最低工资时应权衡其在收入分配上的积极效果以及其对就业的负面影响。

The Effect of Minimum Wage on Average Wage and Employment

This paper evaluates the relationship among minimum wage, average wage and employment in Chinese manufacturing firms based on the exogenous variation of city-level minimum wages from 1998—2007. It is found that if the minimum wages increase by 10%, then the average wages in firms would pick up by 0.4%—0.5%, though there are some heterogeneity in the effect of minimum wage on various firms in different industries and asset per capita levels. The minimum wage policy would contribute more to the average wages hikes of labor intensive firms or firms with lower asset per capita than to other firms. With regard to the employment, it is shown that every raise of minimum wage by 10% would lead to significant employment loss by 0.6% or so. The policy makers should balance the positive effect of minimum wage on the income distribution and its negative effect on the employment as far as the labor regulation is concerned.