农业投入品价格上涨对我国园艺产品收益影响的经济计量分析——以柑橘为例

采用1989～2006年的时序数据,通过建立向量自回归模型考量我国农业投入品价格上涨与柑橘收益之间的动态影响关系,并在对VAR模型进行残差检验和稳定性检验的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数和预测方差方法进行经济计量分析。研究结果表明,柑橘每亩纯收益对农业投入品价格上涨有负向响应并趋向稳定;农业投入品价格上涨对柑橘每亩纯收益增长有正向响应并趋向稳定。为有效缓解我国农业投入品价格大幅度上涨对柑橘收益产生负面影响,政府应健全农业投入品调控机制,取消农业投入品生产和流通环节的补贴政策,对农民实行直接补贴;建立中央和地方两级农业投入品储备制度,平抑农业投入品市场价格季节性波动;完善农业投入品连锁经营体系,降低农业投入品流通成本。

An Empirical Study on Effect of Price of Agricultural Production Input Rise on Income from Horticultural Products

With the history data of 1989-2006, the article establish vector autoregressive model to analysis dynamic relation between prices of agricultural production input rise and income from citrus. The results show that income from citrus response on agricultural production input prices raise is negative and tend to be stable; agricultural production input prices response on income from citrus rise is positive and tend to be stable. To prevent a negative impact on income from citrus caused by sharp increase of Ch...