基于Kaya模型的中国低碳经济策略探讨

本文利用因素分析法借助Kaya恒等式对1990年～2007年间影响我国能源消费碳排放的因子进行分析,研究发现我国经济的持续发展是高碳排放的主导因素,人口是增加CO2排放的重要因素,能源强度的降低对减排的贡献功不可没,能源结构改善对减排的效果不甚明显,并提出破除以GDP为纲的迷思,切实转变经济增长方式、积极调整产业结构,优化人口结构、宣扬低碳理念,改善能源结构及提高能源效率等策略建议。

Discussing about Tactics of Low-carbon Economy of China Based on Kaya Model

This paper studies carbon emissions impacts of China＇s energy consumption from 1990 to 2007 by using the way of factor analysis with Kaya model,the results demonstrate that the increase of CO2 emissions is mainly due to China＇s sustained economic development,population is an important factor of the increase of CO2 emissions,the disincreasing of energy intensity contributes a lot to the reduction of CO2 emissions,and the effect of the improvement of energy structure is not obvious,and gives policy recommendations,for example：get rid of the myth of seeing GDP as the key link,change the mode of economy growth effectively,adjust the industrial structure actively,optimize the population structure,promote the idea of low-carbon,improve energy structure and energy efficiency and so on.