广东省经济开放度与经济增长关系的实证研究

运用协整分析技术、Granger因果关系检验和误差修正模型,对广东省经济开放度与经济增长的长期均衡和短期波动进行实证分析,结果表明经济开放度各项指标与经济增长均存在正向的协整关系,GDP增长是其外资依存度和实际关税率提高的原因,而外贸依存度的提高促进了GDP的增长;经济增长与粤港贸易依存度互为因果关系,相互之间存在较强的协整关系;同时,各项指标具有较大的波动幅度,短期波动对长期均衡的回调速度也较大.因此,大力提高引进外资的质量和水平,转变对外贸易增长方式,推进区域经济合作的全面发展,是广东省外向型经济实现持续稳定增长的主要途径.

Research on the Long-term Equilibrium and Short-term Fluctuation between Economic Openness and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

This paper applies co-integration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model to study the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between Guangdong's economic openness and economic growth.The result indicates that there are positive co-integration relationships between the indices of Guangdong's economic openness and economic growth.Economic growth is the cause of increasing foreign capital dependence and actual tariff rate,and the increase of foreign trade dependence promotes Guangdong's GDP growth.Guangdong's economic growth and Guangdong-Hong Kong trade dependence are the interrelationship of cause and effect,and the co-integration relationship between them is strong.Simultaneously,every index has high fluctuation range and the speed of the correction is very quick from the short-term fluctuation to long-term equilibrium.So,improving the quality and level of foreign capital,transforming the growth ways of international trade and promoting the all-round development of regional economic cooperation,are the main ways for Guangdong's outward-oriented economy to realize continuous and steady growth.