中国经济波动——基于新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型的分析

本文运用新凯恩斯主义垄断竞争模型来研究中国经济波动问题。模型校准的结果表明,就暂时冲击而言,消费偏好冲击、投资边际效率冲击、技术冲击、名义货币供给增长冲击和政府支出冲击都能产生明显的暂时经济波动;就冲击的持久性而言,只有消费偏好冲击和技术冲击的持久性对经济波动变化具有较明显的影响。但技术冲击对产出波动的影响不如RBC类模型那样大,而持久的正向消费偏好冲击对稳定经济增长非常重要。

China''''s Economic Fluctuation:An Analysis Based on the New Keynesian Monopolistic Competition Model

This paper studies China's economic fluctuation in a New Keynesian model. The calibration results of the model indicate that shocks to consumption preference, marginal investment efficiency, technology, government expenditure and monetary supply growth have temporal effects to economic fluctuation. Furthermore, the shocks of consumption ands of technology have persistent effects to economic fluctuation. But the impact of technology shocks on economic fluctuation is smaller than that in RBC models. The persistent shock of consumption preference is important for stable economic growth.