| Abstract: | The paper estimates a seven-variable vector autoregressive model of the U.S. economy over the period 1970.1 to 1990.4. Forecast error variance and impulse analysis are performed on the estimated system to determine the inflationary impact of increases in the price of oil over this period. The analysis shows that a negligible percentage of inflation's forecast error variance can be attributable to increases in the price of oil. Moreover, the impulse simulations result in negative Consumer Price responses to increases in the price of oil. The primary response to a positive shock in the price of oil was a decrease in real output. The results, in general, support previous studies emphasizing the demand-side of response to oil price shocks rather than shifts in aggregate supply. |
