科技创新、产业结构升级对经济发展的实证分析

基于2008—2018年我国30个省份(因数据缺失,不包括西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据探究了科技创新和产业结构升级对各地经济发展影响的路径,将产业结构升级作为中介变量,并细化为产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化,探讨科技创新在促进经济发展中的传导作用,以及将我国分为东部、中部和西部进行区域异质性的分析.实证分析结果表明:①科技创新和产业结构升级均能显著促进地区经济发展,且产业结构升级在科技创新促进经济发展的过程中起到了中介变量的作用;②东部地区科技创新对经济发展的促进作用完全是通过产业结构升级来实现的,而西部和中部地区科技创新对经济发展的促进作用部分是通过产业结构升级来实现的;③东部地区的中介变量产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化在科技创新促进地区经济发展的过程中表现出完全的中介效应,中部地区的产业结构高级化表现出部分的中介效应,产业结构合理化表现出完全的中介效应,而西部地区的产业结构高级化和产业结构合理化均表现出部分的中介效应;④东部地区对外开放是影响地区经济发展的重要因素,固定资本投入对中部地区经济发展影响较大,应继续加大固定资本投入,而西部地区的经济发展仍然处于追赶状态,大力赶超中东部地区经济发展,克服地域发展不平衡是重中之重.

The Transmission Path and Empirical Analysis ofTechnological Innovation and Industrial Structure Upgrading to Economic Development

Based on 2008-2018 panel data of 30 provinces in China(Due to missing data, Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are not included) to explore the technological innovation and upgrade of industrial structure to affect the path of economic development. This paper takes the upgrading of industrial structure as a mediating variable and refines it into the upgrading of industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure, discusses the transmission role of technological innovation in promoting economic development, and analyzes the regional heterogeneity by dividing China into the east, the middle and the west. The results show as follows: (1) Technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading can significantly promote regional economic development, and industrial structure upgrading plays a mediating variable role in the process of technological innovation to promote economic development.(2) The promotion effect of technological innovation on economic development in the eastern region is completely achieved through the upgrading of industrial structure, while the promotion effect of scientific and technological innovation on economic development in the western and central regions is partly achieved through the upgrading of industrial structure.(3) For mediation variables, the optimization of the industrial structure and the rationalization of industrial structure in the eastern region show a complete intermediate-effect in the process of technological innovation to promote regional economic development. The optimization of the industrial structure in the central region shows partial mediating effect, while the rationalization of industrial structure shows complete mediating effect, while the optimization of the industrial structure and rationalization of industrial structure in the western region both show partial mediating effect. (4) The opening up of the eastern region is an important factor affecting the economic development of the region. Fixed capital investment has a great influence on the economic development of central region, we should continue to increase fixed capital input. However, the economic development of the western region is still in a state of catch-up, and it is of Paramount importance to catch up with the economic development of the central and eastern regions and overcome the regional development imbalance.