习惯形成对我国城镇居民消费的动态影响机制研究

习惯形成是居民消费行为的变化依据之一,影响着其演变和发展的规律,现有研究普遍认为,该特征导致我国城镇居民消费愈加谨慎,但追根溯源,习惯形成究竟对居民消费具有怎样的内在影响机制,这是文章探究的主要问题。以改进的Dynan模型为基础,充分考虑居民消费习惯形成的产生机制,嵌入状态空间模型（State Space）构建动态消费函数,采用29个省1978-2016年的城镇面板数据,在测算习惯形成、边际消费倾向的时变参数的基础上,运用面板VAR和脉冲响应函数的动态分析发现：面对不确定冲击,居民消费的习惯形成强度随之增大,促使居民降低消费倾向,并在不确定影响弱化后,抑制消费倾向的回升,在两者的相互制约中,消费倾向最终缓慢回升至某一较低的水平,因此习惯形成减慢了居民消费的变化速度,抑制了消费倾向的提高。这启示我们,改革开放以来,来自供给侧的多次不确定冲击,导致了城镇居民消费较大的习惯形成强度,是其消费倾向持续降低的一个重要因素。为有效提高居民的消费倾向,弱化习惯形成的强度和影响至关重要,为此应构建长效机制,努力降低不确定冲击的广度和深度。文章的研究进一步认清了消费习惯形成的性质,厘清了居民消费变化的动态性和长期性,对提高政策建议的针对性、有效性具有理论和现实的意义。

Dynamic Mechanism of Habit Formation on Chinese Urban Residents' Consumption

In the new normal, with the evolution of economic growth pattern, strengthening the basic role of consumption in economic growth is significant strategically. However, the current consumption status, mainly urban residents' consumption, is difficult to adapt to the evolution, and generally speaking, the effects of existing policy measures are not ideal. How to release the potential of residents' consumption? We know that the change and development of things is the result of the interaction of internal and external contradictions, and the internal contradictions play the decisive role, for residents' consumption behavior, habit formation is one of the internal contradictions, which determines its evolution and development. What is the specific impact mechanism of habit formation on residents' consumption? And existing analysis holds that it has led to more cautious behavior of urban residents in China, why? What kind of policy enlightenments does it bring to us? This paper aims to study it. Firstly, wedraw lessons from Dynan's design concept concerning habit formation of consumption, and fully consider the formation mechanism of residents' consumption in the objective environment style of growing, dynamic and uncertain, then embed State Space model, by establishing the measurement equation in line with the process of residents' consumption formation, to construct dynamic consumption function. Secondly, we use urban panel data of 29 provinces from 1978 to 2016, calculate the time-varying parameters of habit formation and marginal propensity to consume of permanent income by Kalman Filter, and analyze the heterogeneity of habit formation intensity and tendency of residents' consumption in different provinces. Then, we conduct dynamic analysis using panel VAR and impulse response function, the analysis shows that, facing with uncertain shocks, habit formation of consumption urges residents to reduce consumption tendency, but after the influence of uncertain weakening, the latter will restrain the decrease of the former, and the former will restrain the rise of the latter, in the mutual restriction of the two, residents' consumption tendency eventually returns to a lower level slowly compared with the initial state. Therefore, habit formation slows down the speed of change of residents' consumption, inhibits the improvement of consumption tendency. Finally, on the basis of the study above, we analyze the dynamic mechanism of habit formation on residents' consumption. Thisconclusion provides an explanation for the continuous decrease of consumption tendency of urban residents since the reform and open up:the stronger habit formation intensity, which is caused by multiple uncertain shocks from the supply side, is an important factor. So, in order to improve residents' propensity to consume effectively, it is very important to weaken the intensity and influence of habit formation of consumption. In this connection, we should look at the change of residents" consumption from the long period perspective, built a long-term mechanism to reduce the breadth and depth of uncertain shocks. This paper help us further understand of the nature of habit formation of consumption, further clarify the dynamic and long-term of household consumption changes, which has theoretical and practical significance for improving the pertinence and effectiveness of policy suggestions.