房地产调控与全要素生产率:“事半功倍”或“事与愿违”

现有研究表明高房价会降低全要素生产率（TFP）,在"稳房价、稳预期"的调控思路下,房地产调控能否缓解高房价对TFP的抑制作用呢？文章构建包含房地产部门和最终产品部门的理论模型,探讨房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的非对称影响。在实证检验部分,测算2008-2018年152个地级及以上城市的房地产调控强度,采用门槛回归检验房价和房地产调控对全要素生产率的影响,研究结果表明：（1）合理的房价有利于TFP增长,但过高的房价阻碍了TFP增长。（2）房地产调控力度较弱时对TFP的影响为负,房地产调控力度适中时对TFP的影响为正且效果最佳,将房地产调控区分为需求侧调控和供给侧调控,需求侧调控由弱转强时对TFP的影响由负转正,供给侧调控对TFP的影响始终为正。（3）房地产调控通过影响公众房价预期进而对TFP产生影响。

Real Estate Regulation and Total Factor Productivity: “Double the Result” or “Opposite the Result”

The paper constructs a theoretical model including the real estate sector and the final product sector to explore the asymmetric impact of house prices and real estate regulation on TFP. In the empirical test part, the intensity of real estate regulation and control in 152 prefecture level cities and above in 2008-2018 is measured, and the threshold regression is used to test the impact of house price and real estate regulation on TFP. The results show that: (1) reasonable house price is conducive to TFP growth, but too high house price hinders TFP growth. (2) When the intensity of real estate regulation is weak, the impact on TFP is negative. When the intensity of real estate regulation is moderate, the impact on TFP is positive and the effect is the best. The real estate regulation is divided into demand side regulation and supply side regulation. When the intensity of demand side regulation changes from weak to strong, the impact on TFP changes from negative to positive, and the impact of supply side regulation on TFP is always positive. (3) Real estate regulation affects TFP by influencing the expectation of public house price.