新疆农村剩余劳动力转移影响因素研究——基于分位数回归方法

本文将新疆农村剩余劳动力转移作为研究对象，以影响因素为切入点，分别从劳动力因素、制度因素和容量因素中筛选出7个指标，运用多元回归和分位数回归方法，系统分析和判断新时期新疆农村剩余劳动力转移的关键因素及其在不同分位点上的影响程度。研究表明：在整个分位点上，城镇登记失业率、人口自然增长率对新疆农村剩余劳动力转移的影响最大，其次是人均耕地面积的影响；在高剩余阶段，制度变迁指数、第二产业产值比重、少数民族人口比重对新疆农村剩余劳动力转移的影响较大，城乡收入差距在整个分位点上的影响较小。为此，提出促进新疆农村剩余劳动力转移的具体措施。

A Study of Factors Influencing Transfer of Rural Surplus Labor in Xinjiang --Based on Quantile Regression Method

In this paper, the transfer of rural surplus labor force in Xinjiang is taken as the research object, influencing factors as the starting point, factor indicators are selected from the labor factor, institutional factor and capacity factor respectively, multiple regression and quantile regression methods are used, the key factor in the transfer of rural surplus labor force and its impact in different sub - sites in Xinjiangarc analyzed systematically. Studies show that： in the entire sub - sites, the registered urban unemployment rate and the natural growth rate of population exert greatest impact, followed by the per capita arable land; at high residual phase, institutional change index, the proportion of secondary industry output value, the proportion of minority popula- tion exert greater impact, the impact of urban - rural income gap is little. To this end, specific measures to promote the transfer of rural surplus labor force in Xinjiang are proposed.