CAFTA早期收获产品的贸易效应评估

文章基于1999～2006年中国和东盟五国早期收获产品(EHP)贸易流量数据,应用贸易比重指数和行业贸易引力模型,评估中国和东盟五国早期收获产品的贸易效应。结果表明,CAFTA对成员国的EHP区内出口具有贸易扩大效应;同时对东盟五国之间和区外国家与成员国的EHP进出口存在贸易转移效应。在CAFTA今后的建设中,成员国应该采取措施,在促进区内贸易扩大的同时,减少对区外的贸易转移,以获得更大的贸易创造。

An Empirical Study of the Trade Effect of EHP under CAFTA

This paper makes an empirical study of the trade effect of EHP under CAFTA on its member countries.Based on the disaggregate data of EHP trade between China and ASEAN from 1999 to 2006,and using the index of trade share and the gravity model of sector trade,the paper shows that the EHP export from China to ASEAN countries has been expanded,and the trade diversion effect has also been detected for ASEAN countries and non-member countries.