2012年主要经济体经济形势和货币政策走势分析

该文分析展望了2012年主要经济体经济形势和货币政策走势，指出主要发达国家将继续实施“超紧”财政政策与“极松”货币政策组合；美国经济复苏进程加快，其货币政策将维持宽松；欧央行可能于上半年再度降息；英国经济不会陷人二次衰退，其量化宽松政策将止步于QE3；国际资本流动将呈回升趋势；外汇市场延续“美元震荡走高、欧元小幅走弱”格局。

Major economies＇ policy adjustments and their monetary policy prospects in 2012

This article forecasts the economic situations and monetary policy trends of the major economies in 2012, and states that major developed countries would continuously implement the combination of the ＂super-tight＂ fiscal policy with the ＂super-easing＂ monetary policy. As the US economic recovery accelerates, an easing monetary policy would be maintained. The European Central Bank is likely to cut its interest rate again during the first half of the year. The British economy would not experience a double-dip recession, and might end up with QE3. International capital flow would pick up. The USD would go stronger with fluctuations and the Euro would be worse slightly in the FX market.