局部性改革的逻辑:理论与中国农村市场发展和商业环境的案例

本文检验中国1945—1949年恶性通货膨胀期间是否存在价格泡沫,并据此考察理性预期路径的收敛性。结论认为通胀中含有显著的泡沫成分,尤其在样本后半期恶性通胀主要由泡沫所推动而脱离了市场基本面;由于泡沫成分的存在,理性通胀预期的路径并不收敛。经验结论还表明这一时期货币供给主要是内生决定的,预期价格上涨导致名义货币供给几乎同比例增长。这保证了政府的实际铸币税收益,也意味着通货膨胀和货币增长循环相因构成恶性循环。本文的方法为当前我国资产市场泡沫问题的研究提供了参考。

The Logic of Partial Reform: Theory and Evidence of Market Development and Business Environment in Rural China

THIS PAPER TESTS THE PRICE BUBBLES AND CONVERGENT RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN CHINA'S HYPERINFLATION IN THE PERIOD OF 1945-1949. THE EMPIRICAL RESULTS SHOW THAT BUBBLES WERE PRESENT IN THIS PERIOD. IN PARTICULAR, ACTUAL PRICE CHANGES WERE LARGELY INDEPENDENT OF MARKET FUNDAMENTALS AFTER 1947. THUS, ARBITRARY AND SELF-FULFILLING BUBBLES MADE THE PATH OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DIVERGENT. IT IS ALSO FOUND THAT THE MONEY SUPPLY WAS ENDOGENOUS, I.E., IT GREW WITH ALMOST THE SAME SPEED AS THAT OF THE INFLATION EXPEC...