大国经济体金融结构变迁的理论思考*

近30年来，无论是从规模指标、行为指标还是效率指标着眼，相对于银行而言，大国经济体的股票市场均变得更大、更活跃并更有效率，进而其金融结构总体上呈现向市场导向演进的态势。金融结构的这一演变态势并不因初始金融模式的差异而不同，存在较为显著的趋同现象。经济增长模式从增长型发展向创新型发展的转型是开放型大国经济体金融结构演变的内在根源，而开放和技术变革则是引发这些国家强化或趋同市场主导型金融模式与增长模式转型的直接动因。随着中国经济环境的变化，其现有银行主导型金融结构面临着巨大挑战，股票市场在金融体系中的地位急需提升。\

A THEORETICAL CONSIDERATION ON THE EVOLUTION OF BIG COUNTRIES' FINANCIAL STRUCTURE

Since late 1980s, stock markets have become more active and efficient relative to banks measured in terms of size, activity, and efficiency in big (or large economic scale) countries. There is some tendency for national financial systems to become more market oriented for big countries despite the difference of their origin financial modes.It is the core reason that the transformation of their economic development mode from growth to innovation, or the continuous evolution typical of the market economy. Open up (or the financial globalization) and technology change are the direct force to enforce the evolution of their financial structure. With the change of Chinas economic environment, further development of the stock market is the most important and urgent task in the near future.