我国房地产宏观调控政策效应实证分析

近年来,我国房地产市场虽日趋成熟,但房价波动仍然较大,为此政府对房地产行业进行了多次宏观调控。本文采用中国房地产指数通过GARCH类模型对北京、上海两大城市的住宅和商铺数据进行回归分析,通过分析得出以下结论。其一,政府对房地产的调控政策对各个市场的影响不同,且住宅市场受到的影响要大于商铺市场。其二,政府实施的鼓励或调控的政策对各地房地产市场造成的冲击效用也不相同,以首轮调控“国八条”的冲击是最大的。

The Analysis of Chinese Real Estate Macroeconomic Regulation and Control Policy's Effect

In recent years, Chinese real estate market has grown up quickly, but the price of real estate waves greatly. So the government office carried through many macro regulations and gave birth to some influence to the real estate market. This paper used the index of Chinese real estate to analyze the houses and stores' data of Beijing and Shanghai by GARCH. Through the above analysis, the conclusions are as follows: for one thing, the effects of the government's adjustable regulations are different in each market. Moreover, the effect in houses market is bigger than store market. For another, the concussive effect made by government's adjustable regulations is different in each market. And the concussive effect of “national eight” is the biggest.