Extension and Application of the Mills-Muth Urban Residential Land Use Simulation Model: Milwaukee, 1977–2020

The Mills-Muth urban residential land use simulation model is extended to include two residential income classes and a proportion of residential to urban land that varies with distance from the CBD. Land area, population, households, population density and residential property value are simulated for the central city, its suburbs and the Milwaukee urban area for the years 1977, 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2020, for two scenarios that differ primarily with respect to income growth rates and automobile commuting costs. The main finding is the powerful positive effect of even relatively small real income growth on suburbanization.