流动性过剩的测度方法与实证分析

流动性过剩是指实际的广义货币供应量显著地多于有效经济产出所需要的货币数量。本文以此为基础,设计流动性总量过剩系数(CTEL)和流动性增量过剩系数(CAEL)为测度指标,提出流动性过剩与否的判断标准;运用流动性总量过剩系数,选取相关样本数据进行实证分析,结果表明:从2006年第1季度到2007年第2季度,我国均存在流动性过剩,流动性总量过剩系数的平均值高达0.229,相当于名义货币平均过剩6.18万亿元,实际货币平均过剩5.34万亿元。

Theoretical and Empirical Study on Measuring Methods of China's Excess Liquidity

Excess liquidity means that the real supply of general monetary is significant more than the demand by effective economic yields. Basing that , we design the coefficiency of total excess liquidity (CTEL) and the co-efficiency of added excess liquidity (CAEL) as measuring indicators , as well as providing the judgement standards of whether liquidity is surplus or not . Further more we select some related sample to carry out empirical analysis using CTEL.And the results show that China has excess liquidity in all the 6 seasons from 1st season in 2006 to the 2nd season in 2007 , the mean of CTEL is high to 0.229, which means during this period the surplus amount of normal monetary and real monetary reach 6180 billions Yuan and 5340 billions Yuan respectively.