货币政策信贷渠道与利率渠道传导机制有效性分析

目前,大多数学者认为货币政策的传导渠道分别为货币渠道和信贷渠道。为检验我国货币政策传导机制的信贷渠道和利率渠道的有效性,对1984年至2008年我国利率、投资、消费及国内总产值的年度数据进行相关性分析,且对2004第一季度至2009年第四季度我国贷款总量和国内生产总值季度数据进行ADF单位根检验和格兰杰因果检验,研究表明我国货币政策利率渠道除消费外均存在阻滞因素,我国贷款总量与国内生产总值互为因果关系,货币政策的信贷渠道比较有效。货币政策传导机制的货币渠道与信贷渠道都作用于经济,但与货币渠道相比较,我国货币政策传导机制的信贷渠道效果更加显著。

Analysis of Effectiveness of the Transmission Mechanism of Credit Channel and the Interest Rate Channel of China's Monetary Policy

Most scholars believe that there are two monetary policy transmission channels,namely,money channel and credit channel.In order to test the effectiveness of the credit channel and the interest rate channel of China＇s monetary policy transmission mechanism,we analyze the data of China＇s interest rates,investment,consumption and GDP from 1984 to 2008,and we use China＇s total loans and GDP data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2009 to do ADF unit root tests and Granger causality test.This test results show that there are some retardation factors in the interest rate channel of China＇s monetary policy except for consumption.Loan summation and GDP in China are causality to each other.It also tells us that the credit channel of monetary policy is more effective.Monetary and credit channels of the monetary policy transmission mechanism all act on the economy.But compared with the monetary channel,the credit channel of China＇s monetary policy transmission mechanism is more effective.