非寿险业未决赔款准备金调整行为的实证研究

保险企业破产主要原因是准备金提存不足。国外相关文献认为公司通过调整未决赔款准备金的目的有四种，但对该行为的检验方法都存在一个明显缺点，就是要等5年之后才可以研究当前行为。据未决赔款准备金估算模型，同期影响因素有保费收入与赔款支出。运用多元统计方法，建立未决赔款准备与净保费收入和净赔款支出回归模型，结果表明，我国非寿险业不存在较普遍的人为调整现象。

An Empirical Analysis about Discretion of Loss' Reserve in Non-life Insurance Industry in China

Inadequate loss reserve is the major reason of bankruptcy of insurance finns, it is believed that there are four objectives about discretion of loss reserve; however, there is an evident limitation that the current behaviors can only be judged until five years later. In the article the hypothesis is that the factors affecting loss reserve are simultaneously existed premium and loss payment. A regression model is constructed by using multi-factors statistics method. The result indicates that there is no evident discretion in on-life insurance industry in China.