中国对外贸易隐含的碳排放与利益：测算与比较

文章运用环境MRIO模型测算和比较了中国与36个国家（或地区）之间的贸易隐含碳排放余额和增加值贸易余额，全面揭示了贸易所带来的利益与碳排放的关系。主要结论包括：首先，总体来看中国历年贸易隐含碳排放和增加值贸易都为顺差，且呈同步递增趋势，表明中国是碳排放净移入国的同时也是净贸易利益的获得者。其次，中国对26个国家（或地区）的贸易隐含碳排放和增加值贸易呈现双顺差，其中对台湾地区和印尼呈现双逆差，与上述国家（或地区）双边贸易引致的碳排放净流入（或流出）与贸易净利益（或损失）之间呈现互补关系；中国对俄罗斯和印度的增加值贸易顺差而贸易隐含碳排放逆差，使中国获得贸易利益和环境改善的双重收益；对德国等6国的增加值贸易逆差而贸易隐含碳排放顺差，使中国获得贸易损失和环境恶化的双重损失。最后，中国各国（或地区）贸易隐含碳排放余额折算金额后占增加值贸易余额的比重差异较大，总体上中国与发展中国家（或地区）的贸易具有更高的碳排放效率。

The Benefits and Carbon Emissions Embodied in China's Foreign Trade:Calculation and Comparison

With the environment MRIO model, this paper calculated and compared the balance of carbon emissions embodied in trade and the value-added balance of trade between China and 36 countries or districts, and comprehensively disclosed the relations between trade benefits and the carbon emissions embodied in trade. The main results include: first, China's carbon emissions embodied in trade and value-added trade are both surplus and increase synchronously, indicating that China received trade benefits and net carbon emissions inflow simultaneously. Secondly, the carbon emissions embodied in trade and in value-added trade are double surpluses between China and 26 countries or districts and double deficits between China and Taiwan and Indonesia. The relations between carbon emission inflows (or outflows) and trade benefits (or loss) caused by bilateral trade with these countries and districts are complementary. To Russian and India, China's value-added trade is surplus and carbon emissions embodied in trade is deficit. China obtains trade benefit and environmental improvement simultaneously. To six countries, including Germany, China's value-added trade is deficit and carbon emissions embodied in trade is surplus. China obtains trade loss and environmental deterioration simultaneously. Finally, after monetization of China's carbon emissions embodied in trade, its proportion in China's value-added trade is different according to different countries or districts. Totally, China's trade with developing countries or districts has higher carbon emission efficiency.