| 出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较 |
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| 引用本文： | 雷平,施祖麟.出境旅游、服务贸易与经济发展水平关系的国际比较[J].旅游学刊,2008,23(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 雷平 施祖麟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 清华大学公共管理学院,北京,100084;中国地质大学(北京)人文经管学院,北京,100083
2. 清华大学公共管理学院,北京,100084 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地质大学(北京)校内科技基金重点项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 出境旅游是经济发展到一定阶段的必然产物.但当前学术界关于出境旅游的发展对服务贸易的影响存在争议.利用44个主要旅游国家与地区的面板数据,本文发现出境旅游率随人均GDP呈指数上升,整体上看我国还远没有到出境旅游爆发增长的阶段;由于出境旅游与人口规模负相关的大国效应影响,我国出境旅游长期将自动保持在一个温和的范围内.根据趋势分析本文还发现,出境旅游的增长速度将会高于入境旅游的增长速度,期望通过入境旅游的进一步增长弥补出境旅游的外汇与消费漏出缺乏国际经验的支持.根据对33个国家和地区截面数据的分析.本文发现随着经济发展水平的提高,对外贸易中入境旅游地位下降与出境旅游地位的上升是国际普遍规律,这不仅反映了国民生活水准的提高,也是产业结构升级与外贸结构优化的体现.为此担忧、采取行动阻碍是没有必要的,甚至可能是错误的.
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| 关 键 词： | 出境旅游 服务贸易 发展水平 大国效应 国际比较 |
International Comparison of the Relationship between Outbound Tourism,Service Trade and Economic Development Level |
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| LEI Ping,SHI Zu-lin.International Comparison of the Relationship between Outbound Tourism,Service Trade and Economic Development Level[J].Tourism Tribune,2008,23(7). |
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| Authors: | LEI Ping SHI Zu-lin |
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| Institution: | LEI Ping 1,2,SHI Zu-lin1(1.School of Public&Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China,2.School of Humanities , Economic Management,China University of Geosciences,Beijing 100083,China) |
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| Abstract: | Outbound tourism is the outcome of economic development to a certain stage.However,currently there are controversies over the impact of outbound tourism on service trade among academic circle.By using panel data of 44 major tourism countries and areas,the paper finds that outbound tourism rate rises along with the rise of GDP per capita.Overall,China is still at a moderate stage in terms of outbound tourism.Because of the effect of a big country,China's outbound tourism will be automatically kept in a moder... |
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| Keywords: | outbound tourism service trade development level big country effect international comparison |
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