中国再生资源价格长期波动特征及其对经济的影响研究

尽管再生资源在工业生产中替代原生资源的比例逐渐升高，但对再生资源价格波动的特征及对经济的影响尚缺乏研究。本文以再生铜为例，采用GRACH族模型分析发现，我国再生铜价格的波动存在一定集聚性和持续性，价格波动比较缓慢。且负向冲击对再生铜价格波动的影响比正向冲击大，存在显著的杠杆效应。此外，再生铜价波动具有显著的GARCH-M效应，即预期的风险对再生铜价格波动具有正向影响。然后采用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数等方法，引入产出、投资、消费和通货膨胀率变动等宏观经济变量，定量分析了再生资源价格波动与中国经济之间的关系。检验结果表明：再生铜价作为建筑业重要的生产资料，其价格上涨短期内 促使GDP增长，但长期则抑制投资，最终可能影响GDP增长并提高通货膨胀率，即再生铜价格上涨对国家经济发展有不利影响。本文的实证结果揭示出，对中国经济的影响而言，废旧金属价格的变动只是某种表象，经济增长和通货膨胀率变动的背后是更为复杂的原因，问题的实质是以固定投资拉动经济增长的发展模式和部分地区对房地产业过度依赖的产业结构的变化等对中国经济产生的根本性的影响。

The Characteristics on the Price Fluctuation of the Renewable Resource and Its Impact on Economic Research for a Long Time

Although the proportion of renewable resources replacing the native resources in industrial production has gradually been increasing , the price's volatility characteristics of the renewable resource and its impact on the economy are lack of more researches . In this paper , using the GRACH family model exampled by the recycled copper , we found that the recycled copper price has the volatility clustering and the price's volatility is relatively slow . And the negative impacts of recycled copper price are more fluctuating than the posi-tive effect . In addition , the erratic fluctuation of the recycled copper prices has a significant GARCH-M effect , that is expected to have a positive impact on the risk of secondary fluctuating copper price . Then using the VAR model , impulse response function and the other methods , by introducing output , investment , consumption , inflation and other macroeconomic variables , it quantitatively analyzes the re-lationship between fluctuations in the price of renewable resources and the Chinese economy . The test results showed that the prices of the renewable copper as the important construction materials , the prices in the short term would promote the GDP growth , but the long inhibit-ed investment that could eventually affect GDP growth and increase inflation , and have a negative impact on the country's economic devel-opment . The empirical results of this paper reveals the changes in the price of scrap metal is just behind the changes in the appearance of some kind of economic growth , and inflation on the impact of China's economy are more complex reasons:the real problem is fixed invest-ment and stimulate economic changes in the industrial structure of the growth model of development , excessive reliance on real estate and other fundamental impact on China's economy .