农用地分等在耕地需求预测中的应用

基于福建省顺昌县2010年农用地分等成果更新,以及其耕地与粮食状况统计,以粮食安全为切入点,对耕地需求做了初步预测分析。结果显示,2020年顺昌县确保粮食安全耕地面积为15473.89hm~2,大于折合后现有标准耕地面积10916.12hm~2,存在5119.06hm~2标准耕地缺口。表明顺昌县在2010—2020年期间耕地数量不能确保粮食安全。耕地需求预测以耕地质量为指标基础是科学的,应用农用地分等成果预测方法简便,更贴切耕地的实际生产能力。

Application of Agricultural Land Grading to Cultivated Land Demand Prediction

Based on the results of Agricultural Land Grading as well as the cultivated land and food situation statistics in Shunchang County,Fujian Province in 2010,this paper gives a preliminary prediction of cultivated land demand of the county with food security as the starting point,providing reference for the land use planning and cultivated land protection.The research shows that by 2020 Shunchang County will need 15 473.89 hm~2 cultivated land to ensure food security.Since there are only 10 916.12 hm~2 of standard cultivated land now,a gap of 5 119.06 hm~2 exists,implying that the quantity of cultivated land will not guarantee food security of the county during 2010—2020.It is scientific to predict cultivated land demand based on cultivated land quality and the prediction method of application for farmland grading is simple and more consistent with actual production capacity of cultivated land.