固定汇率下资本账户开放对经济的影响——基于修正的Mundell模型的动态分析

本文拓展了蒙代尔(1960)的模型,并用该模型分析了固定汇率体系下资本账户开放对实际汇率和利率的影响,以及资本完全流动时经济的动态稳定性。本文的主要发现是,随着资本账户的开放,资本流动性的加强将会引起实际汇率和利率相对于初始状态的调整。而且,随着资本账户的放开,国内货币政策越来越受制于外部因素。模型的另一个发现是,当资本完全流动时,固定汇率体系呈现一种稳定的稳态。

The Effects of Capital Account Openness on Economy under a Fixed Exchange Rate

This paper extends the Mundell's model(1960) to discuss effects of capital flows on the stability of dynamic system under a fixed exchange rate ,and on the real exchange rate and interest rate. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) Higher capital mobility will affect the real exchange rate and interest rate. (b)A fixed exchange rate leaves very narrow scope for domestic monetary policy when a country opens the capital account. (c)A fixed exchange rate system is stable when capital flows freely.